Weather expert with Stars & Stripes provides latest info


Dave Ornauer

By Barbara Brown


(Tumon, Guam) Dave Ornauer, who is a weather expert, published a storm update in the Stars & Stripes an hour ago stating Tropical Storm Hagibis has intensified again as of 4 p.m. with maximum sustained winds now at 59 mph. The storm also is closer to Guam at 473 nautical miles east of the island.


The storm, according to Mr. Ornauer's article, is moving west-southwestward.


Here is the full text of Mr. Ornauer's 6:15 p.m. update in the Stars & Stripes:

6:15 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 6, Guam time: Not much closer, but closer nonetheless. The latest forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center depicts Tropical Storm Hagibis passing a tad closer to Guam than previously reported.
At 4 p.m., Hagibis was 545 miles east of Guam, 495 miles east of Saipan and 1,886 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, tracking west-southwest at 21 mph and had strengthened to 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts at center, according to JTWC and the National Weather Service.
A typhoon warning remains in effect for Tinian and Saipan; destructive winds of 74 mph or greater are anticipated starting Monday afternoon, NWS reports. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Rota and a tropical storm watch for Guam as well; winds of 39 mph or greater are possible starting Monday afternoon.
If Hagibis stays on its present heading, it's due to reach Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength by early Monday morning, and pass 165 miles north-northeast of Andersen Air Force Base and 185 miles north-northeast of Naval Base "Big Navy" between midnight Monday and 1 a.m. Tuesday, about 35 miles closer than previously reported.
From there, JTWC projects Hagibis to track west-northwest in Japan's general direction, getting within 367 miles east-southeast of Kadena at mid-afternoon Friday as a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon, 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at center. That's at end of JTWC's current forecast period.
Beyond that, model track guidance and the GFS forecast ensemble depict a sharp turn northeast toward the Tokyo area with some outliers. The CMC ensemble remains all over the lot, with the best track showing a track toward Kyushu with outliers spreading as far west as Taiwan and east as Tokyo.
Bottom line: Still too early to make a definite call. Stay tuned. More to come.

To read the full story in the Stars & Stripes, click here.

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